Fact or Fiction: MLB’s Postseason Field Is Already Locked in
The 2025 MLB season has reached its final month and there are still questions that need to be answered, division races to shake out and award races to be decided. Which division leader’s lead is safest? And with a month of games remaining, is the playoff field already set?
In terms of individual player milestones, will Aaron Judge, who surpassed Yogi Berra on the Yankees’ all-time home run list, one day pass the legendary Babe Ruth as well? And could Justin Verlander, after notching his 265th career win, become just the 25th pitcher to record 300 career victories?
We’ll answer each of these questions and more in the latest edition of Fact or Fiction.
The playoff field in MLB is already set
I know I’m being a bit of a party pooper with this answer, but it’s hard to argue with the current playoff landscape in MLB.
For a brief moment to begin August, the Mets and Yankees, both mired in dreadful slumps, had their fan bases longing for the return of New York football. However, both clubs have emerged from the danger zone and stand on firmer ground as the calendar flips to September.
As for the other current wild-card holders, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the likes of either the Red Sox or Padres, two of baseball’s best teams since the All-Star break, fall out of the playoff race. Likewise for the Cubs, who, even after a middling month of August, still have a firm grasp on the third National League wild card.
If there’s going to be a shakeup in the postseason landscape, it will happen in the American League, where the Royals, Rangers and even Guardians all could conceivably catch the Mariners for the third wild card. But all three of those clubs have a noticeable Achilles heel—offensive woes for the Royals and Guardians, injuries for the Rangers—that make it tough to envision these teams taking the field come October.
Of the six division races, one is seemingly decided—the AL Central—and two are trending toward that territory—the NL East and Central. The division-leading Blue Jays, Astros and Dodgers all sport leads of fewer than five games.
All of this to say, there could be some musical chairs going on in the season’s final month as clubs jockey for positioning. The seeding and playoff bracket could look a bit different come season’s end. But get used to the teams that currently represent the playoff field.
Of the 12 teams in pole position entering September, 10 of them boast 90 percent or better postseason odds on FanGraphs and nine of them have similar figures in Baseball Reference’s playoff odds. Hopefully, the good folks at FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are wrong and there’s a September surprise or two in store. Just don’t be too crestfallen if that doesn’t happen.
Verdict: Fact
Aaron Judge will one day top Yankees’ all-time home run list
Aaron Judge on Sunday belted the 358th home run of his career, surpassing Hall of Famer Yogi Berra for fifth on the Yankees’ all-time home run list, which is a who’s who of legends. Judge now trails only Joe DiMaggio, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle and Babe Ruth for the most home runs in club history.
DiMaggio, who belted 361 home runs in his career, is next on the list for Judge. That will almost certainly happen at some point in September, barring a cold spell from the two-time AL MVP. So, should that occur, Judge would trail only Gehrig, Mantle and Ruth.
he one day surpass Ruth, who swatted 659 homers in pinstripes? Let’s take a deep dive. Judge, 33, is under contract with the Yankees for the next six seasons, through the 2031 campaign. And he’ll likely be wearing the pinstripes for the remainder of his career. Back in July, he told Ian O’Connor of that he not only plans to play into his mid-40s, but that he expects to sign another contract that would allow him to do so. So that means, health willing, Judge could conceivably play for another 10 years.
Let’s say he clubs seven homers in September and finishes with an even 50 in 2025. Judge would need to average about 29 homers per year for 10 seasons to match the Sultan of Swat on the Yankees’ all-time list. Given that Judge has averaged just above 35 homers per season for his career thus far, a drop to 29 per year accounts reasonably well for the dip that aging will undoubtedly induce.
That’s the elephant in the room when it comes to Judge potentially catching The Babe. We simply don’t know how well Judge will age because MLB has never seen a player with Judge’s size who also possesses his level of athleticism. And given that he’s been arguably more durable in his thirties than he was in his twenties, there’s reason to be optimistic about his chances of one day standing alone among Yankees sluggers.
I’ll say that Judge surpassing Gehrig and DiMaggio but falling just short of Ruth is still an incredible accomplishment. Time is not on his side, and not only did he get a late start as an older rookie, but he also missed out on effectively another full season due to the pandemic-shortened year in 2020. But that these circumstances occurred and we’re even having this conversation about Judge potentially——being able to catch Ruth one day is a testament to how truly great he is.
Verdict: Fiction
Walker Buehler will be the most impactful late-season addition
How many times does a club with championship aspirations land a two-time World Series winner with big-game pitching experience this late in the season? That’s what happened when the Phillies on Sunday inked Walker Buehler to a minor-league deal after the Red Sox had parted ways with the veteran righthander amid his struggles in Boston.
Any way you slice it, Buehler (5.45 ERA, 1.55 WHIP) has not been good this year. But opportunity knocks for a Phillies club that lost ace Zack Wheeler for the remainder of the year. If Buehler can tinker with his mechanics and figure out a way to pitch better, he has a chance to be most impactful late-season addition.
Right now, though, I’m going in a different direction for that honor. And the winner is … Red Sox first baseman Nathaniel Lowe. That may sound crazy. Lowe, perhaps burdened by the weight of futility, had posted a career-worst .665 OPS in 119 games for the woeful Nationals. Now, however, Lowe is playing for something again—and it shows.
He’s been a revelation for the Red Sox, who are in the thick of both the AL wild card and AL East races. In 12 games with the club—admittedly, a tiny sample size—he’s posted an OPS of .973 and has solidified first base both offensively and defensively for a Red Sox team that had been searching for production from the position since before Rafael Devers (remember him?) was traded.
But to a certain degree, this is who Lowe has been all his career. A solid hitter who makes the pitcher give him a pitch to hit, puts the ball in play and works long at-bats. So while he might not be the flashiest or highest-profile late-season addition, Lowe might just prove to be the most impactful come October.
Verdict: Fiction
Justin Verlander will get to 300 career wins
Justin Verlander is the last of a dying breed in MLB: the old-school ace. Verlander on Sunday did something seldom seen in baseball anymore, as he struck out 10 batters over five scoreless innings on 121 pitches. 121 pitches! In the day and age of beefed-up bullpens and analytics-savvy managers, that simply does not happen anymore.
Aside from that truly rare occurrence, Verlander’s impressive outing was notable for another reason: the start was his 265th career win, inching him ever closer to hallowed ground: 300 career wins. To be clear, wins don’t quite mean what they used to, as talent evaluators—and the game itself—have moved to better indicators of pitcher success, such as ERA. But wins still matter to pitchers, especially to ones like Verlander.
“Talk to almost any starting pitcher,” Verlander told back in February. “How do you feel after you win compared to a loss or no-decision? It’s easier to write off a loss when you know you do well and give up one or two runs and say, ‘I gave us a chance.’ But I’d rather go seven, give up three and win. “We’re here to win.”
It’s predominantly one of the reasons why the 42-year-old, who said he’d like to pitch in 2026, is still on the mound—300 wins is a career milestone that to Verlander. And it’s of even more significance because he could be the last pitcher to ever achieve the feat. The only other active pitchers close enough—Clayton Kershaw (221), Max Scherzer (221) and Gerrit Cole (153) are all either already 40 years old or in their mid to late thirties. So, Verlander is seemingly the last hope.
Will he get there? Simple math says he at least has a chance. The veteran righthander has averaged roughly 13 wins per season in his illustrious career. In order to get to 300 victories, he’d have to average just under 12 wins per season for the next three campaigns to hit the mark. On paper, he could do it—and it may be unwise to doubt Verlander, whose Hall of Fame career was years ago sparked by a perceived snub from a fall in the 2001 MLB draft.
The odds are against him, though. For one thing, look no further than this season for the best proof that games aren’t played on paper. Plagued by a lack of run support and an, at-times, leaky Giants bullpen, Verlander didn’t get his first win of the season until late-July.
Then, there’s the injuries. Verlander missed almost two months of the 2024 season with a neck injury, which he later said he returned too quickly from. He’s had an injured list stint in 2023 and this season for the Giants. Even if Verlander stays healthy, he’s racing against the clock. But should he need to miss any starts due to injury in the next season or two, it could prove costly to his quest for 300.
Ultimately, Verlander doesn’t 300 wins for any other reason than to join an exclusive club in MLB history. He’s a three-time Cy Young Award winner, a former AL MVP and Triple Crown winner, a two-time World Series winner and a member of MLB’s 3,000-strikeout club. It would simply be the cherry on top to one of the greatest careers any pitcher has ever had.
Verdict: Fiction
Brewers will set the franchise record for wins
Buoyed by a franchise-record 14-game winning streak in August, the Milwaukee Brewers seized the title of ‘best team in baseball’ and haven’t relinquished their grasp on the honor. Now, entering September with 85 wins, a different piece of franchise history is very much within reach.
The Brewers, with 24 games remaining in their schedule, have a chance to surpass the 2018 club, which won a franchise record 96 games, for the most victories in team history. In order to do so, Milwaukee, which has won its games at over a 60 percent clip, will need to merely play .500 ball the rest of the way to reach 97 wins and stand alone in Brewers’ lore. Seems like an easy ask for this club.
Schedule luck is on their side, too. Milwaukee has the ninth-easiest remaining schedule, with half of its eight remaining series coming against teams below .500. Among the toughest tests remaining for the Brewers are two more games against Philadelphia this week and three contests against the Padres (Sept. 22–24). In theory, all the Brewers would need to do is take care of business against the easier matchups, and history would be theirs.
Given that Milwaukee sports the best record in baseball against teams above .500, there’s a chance this team could become the first in franchise history to win 100 games. Now would be entering the postseason on a high noteSo, even though the team’s torrid winning pace has slowed since its record winning streak, I’ll still say that come season’s end, this Milwaukee club will stand alone in team history with 97-plus victories.
Verdict: Fact